← All recordsSW-0034 · Crypto · 2019-02-01 to 2025-06-30
Vol-scaled cross-sectional momentum
Did not pass
90Versions testedevery combination, fixed in advance
+0.99Best versionreturn adjusted for risk, per year
+0.62Luck alonewhat the best scores if nothing works
0.823Scorehas to reach 0.950
Result against chance
If the best version cannot beat what luck alone produces from the same number of tries, there is nothing there. The third bar is the smallest real edge this test could have detected: anything below it is invisible to the test, and that limit is stated rather than hidden.
Spread across every version
Every version tested, worst to best. The box holds the middle half. Showing only the best bar is how noise gets sold as skill. 96% of versions finished above zero.
What was sealed, and the verdict
Pre-registered test: DSR 0.823 against a 0.95 threshold. Verdict: NO.
Noticed afterwards: a hypothesis, not a finding
Marginally stronger than plain cross-sectional momentum (SW-0032, DSR 0.809), consistent with the standard argument that scaling by volatility stops the most volatile assets dominating the ranking. The difference is far too small to call a result.
Notes
A numpy 'Degrees of freedom <= 0' warning appears during this sweep. It comes from all-NaN columns — symbols not yet listed — passing through nanstd. Those columns return NaN and are dropped by the ranking, so the result is unaffected.
Sealed on the Bitcoin blockchain before the test ran. sha256 6045b45304dbfe2d62bf574d8386a0f4909822b07f6833264036c400881ddc05